Your scenario
Per-contact commitment probability = reply × meeting × commitment rates, each conditional on the previous stage. Expected capital = contacts × probability × ticket. Contacts for target match expected capital only. P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)^contacts. Independent, identical contacts and equal tickets; no timing, diligence costs or correlated outcomes. Chart caps the contact range at 1 million.
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Scenario chart
Expected capitalFunding target
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